Philadelphia Union v Seattle Sounders

Philadelphia Union meet Seattle Sounders in the Major League Soccer regular season - 19 at Subaru Park, undefined. The model makes Seattle Sounders the most likely outcome at 40%, with the full read 31% PHI, 29% draw, 40% SEA.

Seattle Sounders rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1604 to 1400. Recent form leans Seattle Sounders, 63% against 33%. Attacking output favors Philadelphia Union on expected goals, 1.7 to 1.5 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 64%, over 2.5 goals around 65%. Draw no bet leans Seattle Sounders at 57%; double chance reads Philadelphia Union or draw 60%, Seattle Sounders or draw 69%.

Philadelphia Union arrive patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts), 12 scored and 14 conceded. Recent results: W 3-1 v New York Red Bulls, L 4-6 @ Inter Miami, D 1-1 v Columbus Crew, L 3-4 @ Orlando City SC.

Seattle Sounders are patchy: 1W-0D-4L from their last five (3/15 pts, 4 straight defeats), 5 scored and 13 conceded. Recent results: L 1-3 @ Austin, L 1-5 v Portland Timbers, L 0-1 @ Los Angeles FC, L 0-2 v Los Angeles Galaxy.

Seattle Sounders hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 3 with 2 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2024: Philadelphia Union 2-3 Seattle Sounders.

The market prices PHI at 44% implied. Our number sits apart on Seattle Sounders: a 10.4-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 78 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.