Kenya v Madagascar: the model read
Kenya meet Madagascar in the African Nations Championship quarter-finals at Moi International Sports Centre, Nairobi. The model makes Kenya the most likely outcome at 37%, with the full read 37% KEN, 30% draw, 33% MAD.
The baseline ratings are close, 1573 to 1528, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 60% against 53%. Attacking output favors Madagascar on expected goals, 1.5 to 1.4 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 60%, over 2.5 goals around 58%. Draw no bet leans Kenya at 53%; double chance reads Kenya or draw 67%, Madagascar or draw 63%.
Kenya arrive steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 9 scored and 10 conceded. Recent results: W 4-0 v Lesotho, D 1-1 @ Lesotho, W 3-0 @ Grenada, D 1-1 v Estonia.
Madagascar are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 9 scored and 11 conceded. Recent results: L 0-4 @ Morocco, D 1-1 @ Equatorial Guinea, W 5-2 @ Kyrgyzstan, W 2-0 v Equatorial Guinea.
Kenya hold the recent head-to-head, 1 wins to 0 with 1 drawn across the last 2 meetings. Most recently they met in 2025: Kenya 1-1 Madagascar.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
