Al Taawon overcame a strong second-half fightback from Al-Fateh to win 3-2 and climb further up the Pro League table. The decisive factor was an explosive three-goal burst after half-time, which gave the home side a lead that proved just about enough. The statistics confirm the narrow margin of victory: Al Taawon generated 3.19 expected goals to Al-Fateh's 1.24, though the away side's two late goals reduced the gap to a single strike. The Lemeister model had favoured the home side with a 40 per cent win probability, a projection that broadly matched the balance of play.
The opening goal arrived in first-half stoppage time. R. B. Martinez Tobinson converted from the penalty spot to give Al Taawon a slender lead at the break. The goal came after a period of sustained pressure from the home side, who had dominated possession at 56 per cent and registered nine shots to Al-Fateh's three in the opening period. The scoreboard did not flatter the hosts, who had already created 1.6 expected goals by that point.
The second half began with Al Taawon doubling their lead in the 59th minute. A goal was credited to F. Pacheco, but it was recorded as an own goal, extending the home advantage. Four minutes later, R. B. Martinez Tobinson struck again, this time from open play, with M. Mahzari providing the assist. In the space of 18 minutes, Al Taawon had turned a 1-0 lead into a 3-0 advantage that appeared to have ended the contest.
Al-Fateh refused to capitulate. In the 68th minute, Ramos Jefferson pulled one back, with Wesley Delgado supplying the assist. The goal prompted a shift in momentum, with Al-Fateh enjoying more of the ball and creating three of their eight total shots in the final quarter of the game. Their reward came in the 90th minute, when A. Al Masoud scored, again from a Wesley Delgado assist, to set up a tense finish.
The raw numbers underline Al Taawon's overall superiority. They had 14 total shots to Al-Fateh's eight, with seven on target to three. The home side also dominated the passing game, completing 458 of 523 passes at an 88 per cent accuracy rate, compared to 314 of 390 at 81 per cent for the visitors. Al Taawon won five corners to Al-Fateh's two, though both sides committed 15 fouls each. The only caution of the match was shown to Al-Fateh's Saeed Baattia in the 53rd minute.
Among the rated players, Roger Martínez stood out for Al Taawon with a match-high rating of 9.3, reflecting his influential performance in the build-up and general play. For Al-Fateh, Ali Al Masoud earned a 7.5 rating, while Sofiane Bendebka posted a 7.3 and Jefferson Ramos a 7.2. Muteb Al-Mufarrij and Angelo Fulgini both recorded 7.0 ratings for the victors.
The result takes Al Taawon to a stronger position in the Pro League standings, having now won three of their last four matches. For Al-Fateh, the defeat was a potentially costly one, as they had shown character to fight back but ultimately left empty-handed. With the season entering its decisive phase, both sides will recognise that the fine margins visible in the expected goals and shot counts will likely determine their final placing.
