Al-Ettifaq edged Al-Fateh 4-3 in a seven-goal match at the Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium, a result the Lemeister model had considered slightly favourable to the home side, giving them a 40 per cent win probability with a projected 2-1 outcome. The data shows a game decided by fine margins: Al-Ettifaq scored with five of their 13 shots and got the crucial fourth goal early in the second half, while Al-Fateh, despite generating 15 shots and eight on target, could not recover from conceding three goals before half-time. Al-Ettifaq’s expected goals of 2.32 suggest they created higher-quality chances than their opponents, whose expected goals stood at 1.86 from more attempts.
Al-Ettifaq opened the scoring in the 18th minute through K. Al Ghannam, assisted by J. Costa. The lead lasted only five minutes before F. Pacheco turned the ball into his own net to make it 1-1. G. Wijnaldum restored the advantage in the 36th minute, finishing a move started by A. Medran. Al-Fateh struck twice in quick succession before the interval: M. Batna scored in the 44th minute from a M. Vargas assist, and S. Bendebka made it 3-3 in first-half stoppage time with help from Batna. The decisive goal came three minutes after the restart, when M. Al Olayan scored unassisted to put Al-Ettifaq 4-3 ahead. Despite Al-Fateh’s second-half push, including a second goal from Batna in the 71st minute, they could not find an equaliser.
The statistical picture reflects the even contest. Ball possession was almost identical at 51 per cent for Al-Ettifaq and 49 per cent for Al-Fateh. Al-Fateh had more total shots (15 to 13) and more shots on target (eight to five), but Al-Ettifaq’s expected goals of 2.32 outpaced the visitors’ 1.86. The home side were more efficient with their finishing, needing only five shots on goal to score four times. Both goalkeepers performed identically in terms of goals prevented, each recording a negative value of minus 1.22, suggesting that neither side’s goalkeeper kept out more than the average shot-stopper would have. Al-Fateh had four offsides to Al-Ettifaq’s zero, indicating a slightly more aggressive attacking line that was not rewarded. Passing accuracy favoured Al-Fateh at 81 per cent to Al-Ettifaq’s 76 per cent, though the home side completed more passes overall (349 to 323).
Mourad Batna earned a perfect match rating of 10 for his two goals and one assist across the 71 minutes, making him the clear standout performer. He was involved in all three of Al-Fateh’s strikes and his relentless pressure tested the Al-Ettifaq defence throughout. For Al-Ettifaq, Khalid Al-Ghannam, who scored the opening goal, was rated 8.3, while Álvaro Medrán (7.9) and Georginio Wijnaldum (7.7) controlled the midfield. Sofiane Bendebka and Matías Vargas both finished on 7.3 for Al-Fateh, contributing to the visitors’ attacking output. The discipline was poor: nine yellow cards in total, five for Al-Ettifaq and three for Al-Fateh, with the home side picking up bookings for Jack Hendry, Khalid Al-Ghannam, João Costa, Faris Al Ghamdi and Abdullah Al Khateeb.
The result keeps Al-Ettifaq in the hunt for a strong finish in the Pro League regular season, while Al-Fateh will regret conceding five goals from a limited number of dangerous chances. Al-Fateh’s inability to convert their territorial advantages into a winning scoreline, despite earning more shots and corners, highlights a defensive vulnerability that has plagued them in recent weeks. The Lemeister model’s projection of a 2-1 home win proved too conservative for a game that produced seven goals, but its read that Al-Ettifaq were the marginal favourites was borne out by the narrow victory. The match will be remembered for Batna’s individual brilliance and the frenetic pace that saw four goals scored in the final 10 minutes of the first half.
