Franck Kessié's first-half goal separated the sides at Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium, where Al-Ahli Jeddah overcame a dominant Damac side to win 1-0. The data tells a clear story of inefficiency punished by a single moment of quality. Damac controlled possession with 60 per cent and created 13 shots, four of which forced saves from Edouard Mendy in the Al-Ahli goal. Yet their expected goals total of just 0.35 reflects how rarely those chances truly threatened. Al-Ahli, by contrast, produced only four total shots but generated an expected goals tally of 0.75, a sign that their single opportunity was of far higher quality than anything Damac mustered.
The decisive moment arrived in the 37th minute, when Ibanez provided the assist for Kessié to score a normal goal that proved to be the winner. It was the only shot on target Al-Ahli managed all match, and it underlined the gulf in finishing efficiency between the two teams. The Lemeister model had given Al-Ahli a 49 per cent chance of victory before kick-off, against 24 per cent for Damac, and had projected a 2-0 away win. The final result was therefore in keeping with the model's broad expectation, though tighter than the forecast.
The match statistics reveal a Damac side that dominated territory but could not translate it into clear scoring opportunities. They had 10 shots from inside the penalty area and five corners to Al-Ahli's three, yet Mendy was required to make four saves and the goalkeeper's rating of 7.9 was the second-highest on the pitch. Damac's 307 accurate passes at 84 per cent completion represented a significant advantage over Al-Ahli's 184 at 75 per cent, but all that possession produced nothing of substance in the final third. The visitors' defensive structure absorbed pressure and restricted Damac to low-quality attempts, a conclusion supported by the home side's modest expected goals figure.
Individually, Roger Ibañez was the standout performer with a match-high rating of 8.0, reflecting his influential role at both ends of the pitch. As well as providing the assist for the only goal, the defender was central to Al-Ahli's solidity. Mendy's 7.9 rating confirmed his importance, while Kessié earned 7.3 for his decisive contribution. For Damac, Morlaye Sylla and Valentín Vada both received 7.2 ratings, the highest among the home players, but their creative output was not matched by finishing. Abdulrahman Al-Obaid also impressed with a 7.0 rating.
Discipline was a significant factor in the contest, with seven yellow cards issued in total. Four went to Al-Ahli, including pre-match cautions for Eid Al Muwallad and Riyad Mahrez, and further bookings for Zakaria Hawsawi and Ali Majrashi. Damac collected three yellows, for Jamal Harkass, Morlaye Sylla and Yakou Méïté. The heavy fouling by Al-Ahli - 22 fouls to Damac's 11 - was a clear tactical approach to disrupt the home side's rhythm, and it succeeded.
For Damac, this defeat leaves them with an expected goals output of just 0.35 from 13 shots, a conversion problem that requires attention. For Al-Ahli, the three points were hard-earned but clinically taken, and they will value the defensive resilience that produced a clean sheet despite significant pressure. The result strengthens Al-Ahli's standing in the Pro League table as the regular season reaches the ten-match mark.
