Stuttgarter Kickers defeated TSV Steinbach 4-1 at the GAZİ-Stadion auf der Waldau, a result that exceeded the expectations of the Lemeister model. The model gave the home side a 47 per cent chance of victory and projected a 3-1 scoreline, favouring Stuttgarter Kickers. The actual margin surpassed that projection by one goal, driven by a strong second-half performance that saw the home side score three times after the interval.
The opening goal arrived in the 13th minute. F. Berisha scored a normal goal for Stuttgarter Kickers, giving the home side an early lead without an assist recorded. TSV Steinbach responded swiftly, equalising in the 21st minute when E. Dacaj converted a penalty. That goal levelled the match at 1-1 and ensured the contest remained finely balanced heading into the second half.
The decisive period began in the 64th minute. M. F. Fass scored a normal goal to restore Stuttgarter Kickers' lead, a strike that proved to be the match-winner. The home side then took control in the final quarter-hour. D. Tomic scored in the 80th minute, a normal goal that stretched the lead to 3-1, and added a second in the 90th minute to complete the scoring. Tomic's double in the closing stages gave the scoreline a more emphatic look than the model's 3-1 projection.
With no shots, possession, expected goals or passing data recorded for this match, the primary numerical basis for analysis is absent. The same applies to player match ratings and card counts. This lack of underlying data means the story of the contest is built entirely from the goal timeline and the model's projection. The home side's efficiency is notable: they scored four normal goals from four different scorers, with no assists recorded. TSV Steinbach, by contrast, managed only one goal, and it came from the penalty spot.
The sequence of goals reveals a clear pattern. Stuttgarter Kickers scored first, conceded an equaliser, then scored three unanswered goals. The timing of the second goal, in the 64th minute, was crucial because it broke a period of stalemate that had lasted more than 40 minutes. Once ahead again, the home side added two more goals in the final 10 minutes, a strong finish that suggests they grew in confidence as the match wore on. D. Tomic's brace in the 80th and 90th minutes was the standout individual contribution, though no ratings are available to assess his overall performance.
In the context of the Regionalliga SudWest, this victory gives Stuttgarter Kickers a significant boost. Playing in front of their home crowd at the GAZİ-Stadion auf der Waldau, they secured three points and improved their goal difference by three goals. The win takes them to 23 points from 23 matches, a tally that keeps them in touch with the upper half of the table. The model's projection of a 3-1 win suggests they were expected to win, but the extra goal suggests they performed above that projection, particularly in the closing stages.
For TSV Steinbach, the defeat is a setback. They were the outsiders according to the Lemeister model at 27 per cent, and the result confirmed that status. Their only goal came from the penalty spot, and they failed to find a response after falling behind for the second time. The loss leaves them with work to do in the lower half of the SudWest table, where every point is valuable in the fight to move up the standings. Stuttgarter Kickers, meanwhile, can take confidence from a comprehensive victory that matched their status as favourites.
