Casa Pia and Rio Ave finished their Primeira Liga season with a 1-1 draw at the Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior, a result that the underlying numbers suggest flattered the visitors. The home side generated 2.34 expected goals from 20 total shots but were held to a single goal by a combination of Rio Ave's goalkeeper and their own wayward finishing. The Lemeister model had made Casa Pia a narrow 34% favourite, with a projected 1-0 home win, so the draw represents a slight underperformance for the hosts based on the chances created.
The deadlock was broken in the 35th minute. G. Larrazabal scored for Casa Pia, with D. Livramento providing the assist for a Normal Goal. It was a reward for sustained first-half pressure from the home side, who dominated the shot count and the expected goals ledger throughout the opening period. Casa Pia's lead held into the interval, but the pattern of the game shifted seven minutes into the second half.
Rio Ave equalised in the 52nd minute through J. Blesa, who scored a Normal Goal without an assist. It was a rare moment of incision from the visitors, who managed only six total shots in the entire match and just two from inside the penalty area. That lone shot on target from inside the box was enough to pull them level, illustrating the clinical edge that Casa Pia lacked at the other end.
The statistical story of the match is defined by a stark contrast in volume versus efficiency. Rio Ave enjoyed 59% of the ball and completed 432 passes at an 81% accuracy rate, compared to Casa Pia's 278 passes and 73% accuracy. However, all that possession was largely sterile. Casa Pia had 20 total shots, 12 of which came from inside the box, and generated 2.34 xG. Their 5 shots on target drew 4 saves from the Rio Ave goalkeeper, while the visitors had only 3 shots on target from 6 attempts, with 0.61 xG, forcing the Casa Pia goalkeeper into 2 saves. The blocked-shot count also heavily favoured the home side, 8-1, further demonstrating their territorial dominance.
The individual ratings reflect the home side's attacking impetus and their opponent's defensive resistance. Joao Marques earned the highest rating of the match at 8.3, indicative of a strong performance in the Casa Pia midfield or attack, though the data does not specify his position. Jakub Brabec of Rio Ave was the highest-rated visitor at 7.7, likely underpinned by his work in repelling the constant pressure. David Sousa (7.3), Gaizka Larrazabal (7.2), Ennio Van Der Gouw (7.2) and Gustavo Mancha (7.2) all received solid marks, with the latter two contributing to Rio Ave's defensive structure.
The point leaves both sides with their final league positions settled. For Casa Pia, the draw was an underwhelming conclusion to a season in which they were the dominant force on the day but could not convert that into maximum points. Rio Ave will be content to have salvaged a draw from a match in which they were outshot and out-chanced, leaning on their defensive organisation and a single efficient moment to secure a share of the spoils in the final round of the regular season.
