Benfica won the Lisbon derby 2-1 at the Estádio José Alvalade, a result underpinned by superior finishing efficiency and a higher quality of chances created. The Lemeister model had given Sporting CP a 40 per cent chance of victory, but the visitors, rated at 31 per cent, produced a higher expected goals total of 2.27 against Sporting's 1.66. That statistical edge, built from 14 total shots and five on target, proved decisive against a home side that dominated possession but could not match the effectiveness of Benfica's attacking work.
The opening goal arrived in the 27th minute when A. Schjelderup converted a penalty to put Benfica ahead. Sporting responded by asserting control of the ball, finishing with 61 per cent possession and 494 total passes, of which 420 were accurate at an 85 per cent rate. Benfica completed only 227 of 304 passes at 75 per cent, yet their attacking output remained potent from set pieces, earning eight corners to Sporting's three. The home side registered 19 total shots but placed only six on target, while Benfica's five shots on target from 14 attempts reflected a more clinical approach.
Sporting equalised in the 72nd minute when H. Morita scored from open play, with Z. Debast providing the assist. The goal lifted Sporting's momentum, yet Benfica's response was immediate and purposeful. Rafa Silva scored the decisive goal in the 90th minute following an assist from L. Barreiro, punishing Sporting for failing to convert their territorial dominance into a second equaliser. The timing of the winner gave Benfica a vital edge that Sporting could not overturn in the minutes that remained, despite having 12 shots from inside the box across the match compared to Benfica's nine.
The individual match ratings highlighted the central contributors. Hidemasa Morita of Sporting and Rafa Silva of Benfica each received a 7.9 rating, reflecting their decisive roles in the scoring. Morita's goal was the standout moment of his performance, while Silva's late winner carried obvious weight for the final result. Gonçalo Inácio earned a 7.5 for his defensive work at the heart of Sporting's back line, and Dodi Lukebakio also scored 7.5 for Benfica, likely contributing to the visitors' threat in transition. Sporting goalkeeper Rui Silva was rated 7.3 despite conceding twice, partly reflecting the 0.85 goals-prevented value recorded for both goalkeepers in the data. Francisco Trincão also received a 7.3 rating for his work in attack.
Defensive discipline was tested across the 90 minutes. Morten Hjulmand received a yellow card in the 36th minute for a midfield challenge, and Rui Silva followed in the 53rd minute for a delaying action. Benfica's Anatoliy Trubin was booked in the 75th minute. Sporting committed 13 fouls against Benfica's eight, reflecting a greater aggression that did not translate into defensive solidity. Benfica's three goalkeeper saves matched Sporting's five, but the decisive difference lay in conversion rates, with the visitors scoring from two of their five shots on target against Sporting's one from six.
The result strengthens Benfica's position in the Primeira Liga title race with eight rounds remaining, while Sporting's failure to turn home advantage and a 61 per cent share of possession into a victory leaves them trailing. The statistical picture confirmed that Benfica's higher expected goals, backed by clinical finishing, was the decisive factor. Sporting's greater passing volume and shot count could not compensate for a lack of cutting edge in the final third, and the visitors' ability to score both early and very late ensured they left Alvalade with a result that the data, and the final scoreline, judged them to deserve.
