Havelse overturned the pre-match expectations of the Lemeister model, which had favoured SV Wehen with a 44% win probability, by securing a commanding 4-1 victory away from home. The final scoreline was built on superior efficiency in front of goal and a decisive second-half surge, despite the home side enjoying greater overall territorial control. The Lemeister model had projected a 2-1 home win and a 27% draw probability, but Havelse's ruthlessness rendered those projections irrelevant.
The visitors struck first in the sixth minute through C. Schepp, who converted an assist from N. Boujellab. SV Wehen responded effectively, equalising in the 19th minute when F. Kaya found the net after a set-up from N. Agrafiotis. At that stage, the match was finely balanced, but the underlying numbers already suggested Havelse were making more of their opportunities. The second half belonged entirely to the away side. S. Belkahia restored Havelse's lead in the 51st minute, assisted by J. Duker, before M. Ilic extended the advantage in the 80th minute with help from D. Duah. The result was put beyond doubt four minutes later when J. Berger converted a penalty to make it 4-1, a goal that capped an emphatic turnaround on the road.
The statistics tell a story of contrasting efficiency. SV Wehen recorded 11 total shots to Havelse's five, but only three were on target, while the visitors placed four of their five attempts on goal. Expected goals heavily favoured Havelse at 1.65 to 0.77, underscoring the quality of their chances. Possession was exactly even at 50% each, and passing accuracy was identical at 81%, but Havelse made their limited possession count. They earned just one corner compared to Wehen's six, but this disparity did not translate into home goals. The home side managed seven shots from inside the box and four from outside, but blocked shots accounted for five of their attempts, indicating a well-organised Havelse defence that got bodies in the way.
Defensively, Havelse were organised and disciplined, committing only five fouls to Wehen's 17 and receiving just one yellow card against the home side's three. The card count reflects a match where Havelse controlled the physical battle without overstepping, while Wehen's frustration grew as the game slipped away. The SV Wehen goalkeeper was not required to make a single save, reflecting the lack of testing attempts from the hosts, while the Havelse goalkeeper made three saves to keep his side's lead intact. This disparity in saves is telling: Wehen's three shots on target were all comfortably handled, whereas Havelse's four shots on target produced three goals plus the penalty, demonstrating clinical finishing.
The standout performer by match rating was Semi Belkahia of Havelse, who scored and earned a 7.7 rating. Marko Ilic, also of Havelse, was close behind with a 7.6 for his goal contribution. For SV Wehen, Donny Bogičević, Nikolas Agrafiotis and Ryan Johansson each received a 7.3 rating, though their efforts were not enough to alter the outcome. Johann Berger, who scored the penalty and received a yellow card, was also rated 7.3. The ratings highlight Havelse's collective strength, with their goal-scorers leading the way while Wehen's rated players were concentrated in a narrower band, unable to influence the result decisively.
The result has significant implications in the 3. Liga regular season. SV Wehen's 44% pre-match favouritism in the Lemeister model was overturned by a Havelse side that was given only a 29% chance of victory, with the draw priced at 27%. This defeat will be a setback for the home side's ambitions in the tightly contested promotion race, as dropping points at home against a lower-ranked opponent damages their momentum. Havelse will take considerable confidence from such a dominant away performance against a team that was expected to win, and the efficiency demonstrated in front of goal suggests they can trouble higher-placed sides in the remaining matches of the campaign.
