SV Wehen Wiesbaden needed 87 minutes to find a way past a stubborn FC Schweinfurt 05 defence, but two goals in the closing stages secured a 2-0 victory that the underlying numbers suggest was fully deserved. The Lemeister model had projected a 2-1 home win with a 42% probability, and while the result matched that forecast, the visitors kept the scoreline respectable until the very end. The decisive story of the afternoon was SV Wehen's overwhelming attacking output, generating an expected goals total of 1.89 against just 0.47 for Schweinfurt, a gap that ultimately proved too large for the visitors to overcome.
The deadlock was broken in the 88th minute when Moritz Flotho scored, with Fabian Greilinger providing the assist for a normal goal. Two minutes later, Ibrahim Ati Allah doubled the advantage from Flotho's assist. Those three minutes of scoring were the only time the ball entered the net, but the statistical evidence makes clear that SV Wehen had been building pressure throughout the contest. The home side registered 17 total shots, eight of which were on target, while Schweinfurt managed only five attempts and three shots on goal. Six of those home shots were off target, and three were blocked, but the volume of attempts told a consistent story of territorial and creative dominance.
The shot location data reinforced that narrative. SV Wehen attempted 12 shots from outside the penalty area and five from inside, suggesting a willingness to work openings from distance when the compact Schweinfurt defence denied closer-range opportunities. The visitors managed only one shot inside the box and four from outside, a reflection of their limited penetration. The home side generated five shots from inside the box, a modest total but one that, combined with the wider volume, produced an expected goals figure nearly four times that of their opponents. The Schweinfurt goalkeeper was forced into six saves, a busy afternoon that kept the match goalless until the final minutes.
Possession was relatively close, with SV Wehen holding 53% to Schweinfurt's 47%, but the home side's passing was slightly more accurate at 84% compared to 81%. They completed 327 of their 389 passes, while the visitors completed 285 of 351. The corner count was narrow at three to two in favour of the home side, and the offside numbers were three for SV Wehen and five for Schweinfurt, the latter a sign of a side attempting to push forward late in search of an equaliser. The foul count was 12 for the home side and 13 for the away side, with both teams receiving three yellow cards apiece. Sascha Mockenhaupt, Fatih Kaya and Fabian Greilinger were cautioned for SV Wehen, while Johannes Geis, Lucas Zeller and Manuel Wintzheimer were booked for Schweinfurt.
Moritz Flotho was the standout performer with a match rating of 8.2, reflecting his goal and assist in the decisive moments. Jordy Gillekens followed with a 7.7 rating for a composed defensive display, while Noah Brdar (7.6), Florian Hübner (7.5), Sascha Mockenhaupt (7.2) and Donny Bogičević (7.2) all contributed to a solid collective performance. The defensive unit held Schweinfurt to just three shots on target, three of which were saved by the home goalkeeper.
The result gives SV Wehen three important points in the 3. Liga regular season, moving them up the table with a victory that the data suggests was more comprehensive than the late timing implied. For Schweinfurt, the defeat will sting after 87 minutes of disciplined resistance, but the expected goals gap and the shot count indicate that the visitors were fortunate to remain level for so long. The Lemeister model had correctly identified SV Wehen as the favourites, and the match statistics strongly supported that assessment, even if the scoreboard did not reflect it until injury time.
