The 1st Round Copa Ecuador tie between Deportivo San Camilo and Guayaquil City FC ended goalless after regulation and extra time, with the match decided in a penalty shootout that produced seven successful spot-kicks across five minutes of sudden death, concluding 4-3 in favour of the visitors. With no match statistics provided for shots, possession, expected goals, passing, or corners, the analysis rests entirely on the penalty shootout data and the pre-match forecast from the Lemeister model. The model had identified a draw as the most likely outcome, giving it a 47% probability, with both sides rated evenly at 27% each to win in regular time. The 0-0 scoreline after 90 minutes aligned precisely with the draw being the favoured result, though the model had projected zero goals for each team, which proved accurate for the entirety of open play.
The shootout narrative was defined by near-perfect conversion from Guayaquil City FC, who scored all four of their penalties. E. Mero opened the shootout in the 121st minute, immediately followed by P. Mancilla in the 122nd minute, giving the visitors an early 2-0 lead. Deportivo San Camilo responded with a successful penalty in the same minute, levelling the shootout at 2-2 after their own conversion. J. J. Ayovi Caicedo restored the visitors' advantage in the 124th minute, and Deportivo San Camilo again matched them with a successful spot-kick in the same minute. The decisive moment arrived in the 125th minute when M. Bolanos converted to give Guayaquil City a 4-3 lead, and Deportivo San Camilo were unable to equalise, leaving the visitors with a perfect record from their four takers.
The absence of cards or substitutions in the data suggests a disciplined but perhaps cautious contest, with neither side able to create enough to force a breakthrough over 120 minutes. Without any open-play statistics to analyse, the match's defining characteristic was the inability of either team to score from general play, which placed the entire outcome on the penalty shootout. Guayaquil City's perfect record from the spot contrasts with Deportivo San Camilo's three successful conversions from four attempts, a single miss separating the sides. The named players for the visitors, E. Mero, P. Mancilla, J. J. Ayovi Caicedo, and M. Bolanos, each carried out their spot-kick duties without error, while Deportivo San Camilo's three scorers remain unnamed in the data.
In the context of the Copa Ecuador's 1st Round, Guayaquil City FC advance to the next stage by virtue of their superior nerve in the shootout, despite failing to score during the match itself. For Deportivo San Camilo, progressing past the opening round would have required a perfect penalty performance, which ultimately eluded them by one miss. The Lemeister model's pre-match forecast correctly identified a draw as the most probable result, with a 47% probability, though the decisive outcome fell on the 27% away-win side of the equation. Neither team generated any attacking threat worth measuring across the available statistics, leaving the tie's defining moments confined entirely to the five-minute shootout period. The result underscores the randomness of penalty shootouts in cup competitions, where a single miss can outweigh 120 minutes of stalemate. Guayaquil City will take confidence from their composure from the spot, while Deportivo San Camilo will rue the missed opportunity to capitalise on home advantage at the Estadio 7 de Octubre in Quevedo.
