Palmeiras v Ceara: the model read
Palmeiras meet Ceara in the Copa Do Brasil 3rd round at Allianz Parque, São Paulo, São Paulo. The model makes Palmeiras the most likely outcome at 47%, with the full read 47% PAL, 31% draw, 22% CEA.
Palmeiras rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1707 to 1454. Recent form leans Palmeiras, 80% against 43%. Attacking output favors Palmeiras on expected goals, 1.6 to 1.1 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 30%, over 2.5 goals around 39%. Draw no bet leans Palmeiras at 68%; double chance reads Palmeiras or draw 78%, Ceara or draw 53%.
Palmeiras arrive in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts, 3 straight wins), 9 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 v Chapecoense-sc, W 4-1 v Junior, W 3-0 @ Flamengo, L 0-1 v Cerro Porteno.
Ceara are out of sorts: 0W-2D-3L from their last five (2/15 pts), 1 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 @ America Mineiro, D 0-0 v Athletic Club, L 0-2 @ Goias, L 0-2 @ Juventude.
Palmeiras hold the recent head-to-head, 7 wins to 2 with 1 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2025: Ceara 1-3 Palmeiras.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 54 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
