Maua emerged as 3-2 winners over Uniao Mogi at Estádio Municipal Francisco Ribeiro Nogueira, a result that aligned with the Lemeister model’s pre-match view. The model gave the visitors a 41% win probability and projected a 2-1 scoreline in their favour, slightly underestimating the total goals but correctly forecasting the outcome. The match was decided by Maua’s superior finishing in the second half, where they struck twice in a 17-minute spell to seize control, despite the absence of possession, passing or shot data to assess broader territorial dominance.
The scoring opened in the 30th minute when R. Pablo put Maua ahead, a goal that gave the visitors an early platform. Uniao Mogi responded quickly, Joao Victor equalising in the 35th minute to level the contest at 1-1 at the break. The second half followed a similar pattern. D. Rodrigues restored Maua’s lead in the 62nd minute, then added his second of the match in the 79th minute, a double-strike that effectively decided the contest. Rafa pulled one back for Uniao Mogi in the 82nd minute, setting up a tense finish, but Maua held on to claim the three points.
With no detailed match statistics available, the analysis must rely on the goal timeline and the competition context. D. Rodrigues was the decisive figure, contributing two goals across a 17-minute second-half burst that turned a 1-1 stalemate into a 3-1 lead. R. Pablo’s opener provided the initial advantage, while Rafa’s late strike gave Uniao Mogi hope, though they could not find an equaliser after conceding the third. Joao Victor’s equaliser was crucial in keeping his side level at half-time, but Uniao Mogi’s inability to prevent Maua from scoring twice in quick succession proved costly.
Neither side received any cards, and no substitutions were recorded, indicating a disciplined contest with settled line-ups. The lack of statistical data means no player ratings are available to highlight individual performances beyond the goal-scorers, but the four nameable players each played a direct role in the scoring. Maua’s three goals, all from open play and without a recorded assist, suggest they created chances through individual movement or direct attacking play rather than structured build-up. Uniao Mogi’s two goals also came from open play, with no assist credited, reflecting a contest where forwards seized opportunities without notable creative midfield contributions.
The result is a significant one in the Paulista Série B first phase. For Maua, the victory builds momentum, particularly given the Lemeister model’s slight favour towards them. The projected 2-1 scoreline was close, and the win itself was in line with expectations, reinforcing the view that Maua’s attacking potency, led by D. Rodrigues’ brace, is a key strength. Uniao Mogi, meanwhile, suffered a home defeat after conceding three goals for the first time in the round, leaving them to recover from a second-half collapse that undid their first-half resilience. Both sides will take lessons from a match that, despite its statistical sparsity, highlighted the clinical finishing that decided the outcome.
