Anápolis secured a 2-1 victory over Figueirense at the Estádio Orlando Scarpelli, a result that the Lemeister model had tipped as a near-even contest, giving the visitors a marginal 34 percent win probability. The data shows that while the match was closely fought, Anápolis were clinical with their opportunities and resilient in the closing stages.
The opening goal arrived in the 30th minute. Igor Cassio converted from the penalty spot to give Anápolis the lead. The award of the spot kick was a significant moment, as it came during a period where Figueirense would have been comfortable on home turf. The home side responded with purpose after the interval, and their persistence was rewarded in the 78th minute when Marlyson equalised with a normal goal, bringing the score to 1-1 and setting up a tense finale. Just as a draw appeared likely, Guilherme Bastos struck for Anápolis in the 90th minute with another normal goal, snatching all three points. The timing of the goal was decisive, leaving Figueirense with no time to mount a response. The visitors managed the closing moments effectively, holding firm against any late pressure.
The disciplinary record illustrates a match that was competitive but not overly fractious. Anápolis’s Rafael Costa was booked early, in the 2nd minute, setting a tone for the visitors’ defensive approach. Paulinho of Anápolis received a yellow card in the 46th minute, just after the restart. Figueirense’s Joao Lucas was cautioned in the 62nd minute, a foul that came during a period of sustained home pressure seeking an equaliser, which they eventually found but could not protect.
With the match stats and ratings unavailable, the analysis is limited to the goal timeline and card data. The absence of shot or possession figures means the narrative is built around the efficiency of Anápolis’s finishing: two goals from open play plus a penalty, while Figueirense mustered a single goal through Marlyson. The Lemeister model’s projection of a narrow away win was accurate, though the 1-0 margin it forecast fell short of the actual 2-1 outcome.
The result is significant for both sides in the context of the Serie C regular season. For Figueirense, the defeat at home is a setback, particularly after fighting back to level the score only to concede late. Anápolis, meanwhile, demonstrated resilience and effectiveness in key moments, picking up a valuable away victory that could prove important as the season progresses toward its decisive phases. The win keeps them competitive in the crowded mid-table, while Figueirense will rue a result that seemed within their grasp.
The balance of the match hinged on the penalty award in the 30th minute. Igor Cassio stepped up to convert, giving Anápolis a lead they would hold for nearly 50 minutes of play. Figueirense responded with a period of sustained pressure, culminating in Marlyson’s equaliser in the 78th minute. However, the home side could not build on that momentum. Guilherme Bastos’s 90th-minute goal restored the visitors’ advantage and secured the win, underlining Anápolis’s ability to take their chances when they mattered most. The yellow cards, particularly the early booking for Rafael Costa, suggest a disciplined defensive effort from Anápolis that absorbed pressure without breaking until the equaliser. Figueirense’s single caution for Joao Lucas indicates a focused attempt to break down the visitors’ defence, but ultimately they lacked the cutting edge to earn more than a point. For Figueirense, this result leaves them looking over their shoulder in the table, while Anápolis can draw confidence from a hard-fought away win that defied the pre-match projections of a stalemate.
