Porto Velho 0-3 Mixto
This was a contest defined by attacking efficiency, as Mixto scored three goals from limited but high-quality opportunities, completely overturning a pre-match forecast that had favoured the home side. The Lemeister model had given Porto Velho a 48 per cent chance of victory and projected a 1-0 home win, but Mixto, who entered with only a 22 per cent likelihood of success, produced a clinical performance that left the home side scoreless. The breakthrough came on the stroke of half-time, with Pablo finding the net in the 45th minute to give Mixto the lead. That goal changed the complexion of the match, and the visitors doubled their advantage five minutes after the restart through Gilvan in the 50th minute. Emerson Machado then sealed the result with a third goal in the 86th minute. None of the goals were assisted, and none were penalties or own goals.
The statistics in the final third explain the outcome clearly. Mixto managed nine total shots to Porto Velho's six, but the more significant gap was in shots on target: five for the visitors against only two for the home side. That difference in accuracy was reflected in the expected goals data, where Mixto's total of 1.8 far exceeded Porto Velho's 0.6. The visitors were able to generate higher-quality chances, while Porto Velho's attacking efforts lacked the same cutting edge. Possession favoured the home side at 58 per cent, but that control did not translate into clear openings. Porto Velho's passing accuracy of 79 per cent was three points lower than Mixto's 82 per cent, and Mixto won five corners to Porto Velho's three. The visitors also committed 12 fouls, double the home side's six, but discipline was not a factor as the referee showed no cards to either team. No substitutions were made by either side, meaning the starting line-ups bore the full responsibility.
Player ratings from the Lemeister model underlined Mixto's superior individual contributions. Pablo was the most effective player on the pitch with a match rating of 7.9, reflecting both his goal and his all-round attacking output. Gilvan scored one goal and recorded a 7.4 rating, while Emerson Machado's late strike earned him a 7.2. For Porto Velho, no outfield player reached the 7.0 threshold. The home side's highest-rated performer was their centre-back, who finished with a 6.9, while the average rating for the home defence was just 6.4. That defensive vulnerability was exposed by Mixto's forward line, who took their chances when they arrived.
For Porto Velho, this defeat is a significant setback in the Serie D first phase. They now sit in the lower half of the group table, three points adrift of the qualification positions with only three matches remaining. The Lemeister model had backed them to win at home, but their inability to convert possession into goals cost them dearly. Mixto, by contrast, have revitalised their campaign. They were given only a 22 per cent chance of victory before kick-off but have now moved to within two points of the top four. Scoring three goals away from home, with no assists and no penalties, speaks to a direct and efficient attacking approach that could prove decisive as the first phase reaches its conclusion. The victory gives Mixto real momentum, while Porto Velho face a difficult task to recover.
