Mali v Zambia: the model read
Mali meet Zambia in the Africa Cup of Nations group stage - 1 at Stade Mohammed V, Casablanca.
The baseline ratings are close, 1504 to 1400, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Mali, 53% against 15%. Attacking output favors Mali on expected goals, 1.2 to 0.6 per match.
Mali arrive patchy: 0W-3D-2L from their last five (3/15 pts), 1 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: L 0-2 @ Iran, D 0-0 @ Russia, L 0-1 v Senegal, D 1-1 v Tunisia.
Zambia are out of sorts: 0W-2D-3L from their last five (2/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 1 scored and 11 conceded. Recent results: L 0-5 @ Argentina, L 0-3 v Morocco, D 0-0 v Comoros, D 1-1 @ Mali.
Mali hold the recent head-to-head, 1 wins to 0 with 2 drawn across the last 3 meetings. Most recently they met in 2025: Mali 1-1 Zambia.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 56 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
