PanamaUSA v Panama: the model read
USA meet Panama in the CONCACAF Nations League semi-finals at SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, California. The model makes Panama the most likely outcome at 36%, with the full read 35% USA, 29% draw, 36% PAN.
The baseline ratings are close, 1592 to 1546, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 60% against 57%. Attacking output favors USA on expected goals, 1.9 to 1.6 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 69%, over 2.5 goals around 69%. Draw no bet leans Panama at 50%; double chance reads USA or draw 64%, Panama or draw 65%.
USA arrive in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts), 11 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: L 1-4 v Belgium, W 2-0 v Bosnia & Herzegovina, L 2-3 @ Türkiye, W 2-0 v Australia.
Panama are patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts, 3 straight defeats), 5 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: L 0-2 v England, L 0-1 v Croatia, L 0-1 @ Ghana, D 1-1 v Bosnia & Herzegovina.
USA hold the recent head-to-head, 6 wins to 3 with 1 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2025: USA 0-1 Panama.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
