De Graafschap v Jong AZ: the model read
De Graafschap meet Jong AZ in the Eerste Divisie regular season - 27 at Stadion De Vijverberg, Doetinchem. The model makes De Graafschap the most likely outcome at 37%, with the full read 37% DE , 27% draw, 36% JON.
The baseline ratings are close, 1523 to 1496, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 53% against 47%. Attacking output favors De Graafschap on expected goals, 2.0 to 1.8 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 86%, over 2.5 goals around 89%. Draw no bet leans De Graafschap at 51%; double chance reads De Graafschap or draw 64%, Jong AZ or draw 63%.
De Graafschap arrive patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts, 3 straight defeats), 10 scored and 18 conceded. Recent results: L 3-6 v Telstar, L 1-2 v AEK Athens FC, L 2-7 @ Heerenveen, W 2-1 @ Utrecht.
Jong AZ are in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 9 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: W 3-0 v Jong Ajax, W 3-1 v FC Volendam, D 1-1 @ Waalwijk, W 2-0 v Roda.
De Graafschap hold the recent head-to-head, 6 wins to 2 with 2 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: De Graafschap 5-0 Jong AZ.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
