Al Shahaniya and Al Waab played out a 1-1 draw in the QFA Cup quarter-finals at the Hamad bin Khalifa Stadium, with the tie ultimately decided by a penalty shootout that saw eight successful spot-kicks across two rounds. The data from the match shows a contest where both sides found the net once in regular time, though the bare numbers are limited in explaining the full pattern of play. The Lemeister model had favoured Al Waab with a 37 per cent win probability, while Al Shahaniya were given a 33 per cent chance and the draw 29 per cent.
The opening goal arrived in the sixth minute when F. Antonucci put Al Shahaniya ahead. The strike, a normal goal and unassisted according to the data, came early and set the tone for a first half in which the home side held the lead. Al Waab responded just before half-time, with B. Faye scoring in the 44th minute to level the scores. That second goal also carried no assist and was classified as a standard finish, leaving the match finely poised at 1-1 at the interval. The lack of further goals in the second half meant extra time was required to separate the teams.
The extra period produced no further scoring from open play, but the shootout that followed was a marathon. The first round was perfectly matched, with both sides converting their penalties in the 121st minute. The second round followed the same pattern in the 122nd minute. Al Shahaniya then missed their third attempt in the 123rd minute, while Al Waab scored theirs in the 124th. The home side then scored again in the 124th minute, keeping the shootout alive, but they missed their fifth penalty in the 125th minute and Al Waab converted theirs at the same minute to seal a 4-3 shootout victory.
Without a full statistical breakdown, the analysis relies on the available data, which is sparse. No cards were issued, and no substitutions were made by either side, suggesting a disciplined and perhaps physically conservative contest. The absence of shots, possession, and expected goals figures means the narrative must be built around the goals themselves and the shootout drama. F. Antonucci and B. Faye were the only players named as contributors in open play, each with a single goal that cancelled the other out.
The match ratings and deeper statistics were not provided, so the standout performers cannot be assessed beyond the goal scorers. The shootout alone saw eight successful penalties, with the pattern shifting only when Al Shahaniya missed their third attempt, giving Al Waab the advantage they ultimately held. The regularity of the penalties, each round played in consecutive minutes, indicates a tightly contested sequence where both sides showed composure under pressure.
The result means Al Waab progress to the semi-finals of the QFA Cup, having overcome a determined Al Shahaniya side through the lottery of penalties. For the home team, the early lead and the resilience to take the tie to spot-kicks will be of little consolation, as they exit the competition. Al Waab now move one step closer to the final, with their shootout victory reflecting a contest that was too close to call over 125 minutes of play. The Lemeister model’s pre-match projection had Al Waab as slight favourites, a reading the outcome vindicated, but only just.
