Atletico-MG closed their Serie A campaign with a 1-0 victory over Atletico Paranaense at Arena MRV, a result that the underlying numbers suggest was a fair reflection of the home side's dominance. The hosts controlled possession with 62 percent and created 14 total shots to the visitors' seven. The expected goals differential of 1.37 to 0.39 indicates that Atletico-MG generated the clearer chances throughout the contest, even if the single-goal margin kept the outcome in doubt until the final whistle.
The decisive moment arrived in the 73rd minute when Rubens scored a normal goal with no assister recorded. The strike came after sustained pressure from the home side, who had already forced six saves from the visiting goalkeeper by that point. Rubens was one of the standout performers on the pitch, earning a match rating of 7.9, the highest of any Atletico-MG player. Only Atletico Paranaense goalkeeper Mycael, who made six saves and posted an 8.5 rating, prevented the margin from being wider.
The statistical disparity extended beyond shots and possession. Atletico-MG completed 383 accurate passes from 444 attempts, a success rate of 86 percent, while Atletico Paranaense managed 191 accurate passes from 262 attempts, a 73 percent completion rate. This passing efficiency allowed the home side to control the tempo and territory. The visitors struggled to build sustained attacks, managing only three shots inside the box from seven total attempts, and their expected goals output of 0.39 was the lowest of any team involved in the round.
Individual performances were notable for both sides. For Atletico-MG, Everson earned a 7.6 rating and was credited with 1.62 goals prevented, though he also received a yellow card in the 90th minute. Gustavo Scarpa and Guilherme Arana posted ratings of 7.5 and 7.3 respectively, contributing to the home side's control of midfield and the flanks. For Atletico Paranaense, Tomas Cuello was the highest-rated outfielder with 7.5, but his efforts were isolated against a defence that restricted the visitors to four shots on target from seven attempts.
Discipline was an issue for both teams, with three yellow cards each. Atletico-MG saw Brahian Palacios booked before kick-off, Everson in the 90th minute, and Igor Gomes in the 97th minute. Atletico Paranaense's cards were spread through the match: Agustin Canobbio in the 24th minute, Fernandinho in the 56th, and Thiago Heleno in the 66th. The home side committed 12 fouls compared to the visitors' 16, and Atletico-MG did not register a single offside while the visitors were caught twice. Both teams made five substitutions.
The Lemeister model had forecast a narrow away favouritism, giving Atletico Paranaense a 34 percent chance of winning and projecting a 1-0 away victory. The actual result saw Atletico-MG claim the win, reversing the model's projected outcome. This victory gave the home side a positive finish to their Serie A season, while Atletico Paranaense ended their campaign without points from the trip to Belo Horizonte. The expected goals differential of nearly one full goal suggests that the home side's superiority was not reflected in the narrow scoreline.
