Union Santa Fe v Newells Old Boys

Union Santa Fe took full advantage of their chances to defeat Newells Old Boys 2-0 at Estadio 15 de Abril, a result that the Lemeister model had considered likely, giving the home side a 43 per cent win probability. The final scoreline was more emphatic than the underlying numbers might suggest, with Union Santa Fe scoring two goals from an expected goals total of 0.85, while Newells Old Boys managed just 0.65 xG without finding the net.

The home side struck early, taking the lead in the 8th minute through M. Pittón, who finished after being set up by L. Vargas. That early goal allowed Union Santa Fe to sit deeper, ceding possession to a Newells side that dominated the ball with 66 per cent. The second goal arrived in the 58th minute when N. Orsini doubled the advantage, assisted by M. Del Blanco, effectively putting the game beyond reach.

Despite the lop-sided scoreline, the shot statistics were remarkably balanced. Union Santa Fe had 14 total shots to Newells' 12, with each side managing three shots on target. The home team created eight shots from inside the box compared to the visitors' six, while both sides had six efforts from outside the area. The four blocked shots for Union Santa Fe suggests they were effective at getting in the way of Newells' attempts, a factor that contributed to the clean sheet.

Possession statistics tell a clear story of Newells' dominance without reward. The visitors completed 391 of 479 passes at an 82 per cent accuracy rate, while Union Santa Fe managed just 156 of 237 passes at 66 per cent. Newells also won the corner count 1-2, though that advantage did not translate into clear-cut opportunities. The home side's goalkeeper made four saves to earn his clean sheet, while his opposite number made only one.

The player ratings reflect the influence of the goalscorers and key defenders for Union Santa Fe. N. Orsini was the highest-rated player on the pitch with a 7.7, having scored the decisive second goal. Goalkeeper Thiago Cardozo earned a 7.5 for his performance, while L. Vargas, who provided the first assist, was rated 7.2. Defenders Franco Pardo and Claudio Corvalán also received 7.2 ratings, underlining the collective defensive effort. For Newells Old Boys, Saúl Salcedo was the standout with a 7.3 rating, the only visiting player to feature above a 7.0.

The match was not without discipline issues. M. Torren of Union Santa Fe was booked in the 17th minute, while Newells' J. Mendez saw a yellow card deep into stoppage time, in the 94th minute. Both sides made five substitutions, reflecting the tactical adjustments made as the game progressed.

In the context of the Liga Profesional Argentina's 2nd Phase, this victory provides a valuable three points for Union Santa Fe, who were able to convert their opportunities despite seeing less of the ball. For Newells Old Boys, the loss will be a frustration given their statistical dominance, but the lack of cutting edge in the final third proved costly. The Lemeister model's pre-match projection of a 1-0 home win proved close to the mark, though the actual result was slightly more comfortable for Union Santa Fe.