Venezia took a significant step towards securing their Serie B play-off position with a 2-1 victory over Feralpisalo at the Stadio Pierluigi Penzo. The data shows a contest that was far closer than the final score suggests, with Venezia’s superior efficiency in front of goal proving decisive. Feralpisalo registered 14 total shots to Venezia’s 13, but the home side placed seven of theirs on target against just two from the visitors. That disparity in shot accuracy, coupled with Joel Pohjanpalo’s match-winning double, ultimately decided the outcome. The Lemeister model had made Venezia marginal favourites with a 45 per cent chance of winning, and the result aligned with that pre-match projection.
The match remained goalless for the opening hour, a period in which Venezia controlled 57 per cent of possession and completed 447 of their 525 passes at an 85 per cent accuracy rate. Feralpisalo, despite having less of the ball, created more attempts at goal, racking up nine shots inside the box before the first goal. The breakthrough came in the 60th minute when J. Pohjanpalo scored, with C. Gytkjær providing the assist. That goal was typical of Venezia’s approach, turning their territorial advantage into a tangible reward. They had generated 12 shots inside the box across the match, a figure that underlined their persistent threat in the penalty area.
Feralpisalo, showing considerable resilience, equalised in the 83rd minute. M. Compagnon found the net from an assist by C. Kourfalidis. It was a deserved reward for Feralpisalo’s attacking endeavour, though their final product had been lacking. They managed only two shots on target from their 14 attempts, and their solitary goal came from one of those. Their expected goals, implied by the volume of shots, was not converted into the second goal that might have secured a point. The Lemeister model’s projection of two home goals and zero away goals reflected a clean-sheet expectation that Feralpisalo overturned, but not enough to take anything from the contest.
The winning moment arrived in the 93rd minute, deep into stoppage time. J. Pohjanpalo scored his second goal of the game, this time assisted by Michael Svoboda. It was a cruel blow for Feralpisalo, who had fought back from a goal down and were visibly affected by the lateness of the strike. The goal completed a significant individual performance from Pohjanpalo, who was awarded a match rating of 9. His two goals from what were likely a modest number of shots underlined his clinical finishing. Michael Svoboda also impressed for Venezia, earning a rating of 7.7 for his work at both ends of the pitch.
Discipline was a notable feature of the match, with Venezia accumulating five yellow cards compared to Feralpisalo’s one. Nunzio Lella, Michael Svoboda, Ali Dembele, Mikael Ellertsson and Magnus Kofod Andersen all went into the book for the home side, while Andrea La Mantia was the only Feralpisalo player cautioned. That imbalance did not result in any red cards, but it did affect Venezia’s rhythm, particularly in the second half when the bookings were more frequent. Feralpisalo, despite committing eight fouls to Venezia’s nine, avoided the same level of sanction.
For Venezia, the victory is important in the context of the Serie B regular season. With the play-off places still up for grabs, the three points keep them firmly in contention. Feralpisalo, meanwhile, remain in a precarious position, their survival hopes dented by a defeat that arrived in the final seconds. The underlying statistics suggest they were not outplayed, but the inability to convert chances into goals has cost them dearly. The Lemeister model’s projection of a home win proved accurate, and Venezia’s reliance on Pohjanpalo’s finishing was ultimately decisive.
