Atletico Paranaense overturned an early deficit to beat CRB 2-1 in the Copa Do Brasil third round at the Arena da Baixada, a result that by the numbers was decided by a significant edge in attacking pressure despite a sluggish start. The Lemeister model gave the home side only a 36 per cent chance of winning before kick-off, implying a far tighter contest than the final statistics suggested.
CRB struck first in the eighth minute through Anselmo Ramon, who scored a normal goal without an assist. That early lead gave the visitors a platform, but they were unable to build on it. The rest of the half saw Atletico Paranaense assert control, and the hosts' dominance in possession and territory gradually translated into chances. CRB were forced into defending deep, and their sole yellow card before the interval went to Juninho Valoura in the 43rd minute, a sign of the pressure they were under.
Atletico Paranaense’s persistence was rewarded in the 63rd minute when Alex Santana equalised with a normal goal. The home side continued to push, and Santana struck again in the 81st minute to complete his brace and put his team ahead. His second goal was another normal goal without an assist, and he was also booked in the 84th minute, a small price for a match-winning performance. The home side’s total of ten corner kicks to CRB’s three underscored their territorial dominance; they spent long periods in the final third and forced the away defence to clear repeatedly. The single yellow card for Atletico Paranaense, against CRB’s two, suggests they committed fewer tactical fouls while pressing high.
The absence of detailed match ratings or shot and expected goals data limits a deeper numerical analysis of individual contributions, but the corner count is a strong proxy for attacking intent. Atletico Paranaense’s midfield and forward line generated far more set-piece opportunities, while CRB’s attack, after Anselmo Ramon’s early goal, failed to threaten consistently enough to earn corners of their own. The visitors’ second yellow card for Lucas Falcao in the 71st minute came shortly after Atletico Paranaense’s equaliser, a sign of frustration as the game slipped away.
Both sides made five substitutions, but the data does not specify which players were replaced or what tactical adjustments they brought. The flow of the match, however, suggests Atletico Paranaense introduced fresh legs to maintain their intensity, while CRB’s changes did not stem the home side’s momentum. Alex Santana’s decisive double makes him the standout performer based on available information, as he provided the goals that turned the tie around.
The win gives Atletico Paranaense a one-goal advantage heading into the second leg of this third-round tie. For CRB, the away goal from Anselmo Ramon keeps the tie alive, but their inability to hold the lead or create further opportunities away from home leaves them vulnerable. The Lemeister model’s projection of a 1-0 home win proved conservative; this 2-1 result is a slightly more emphatic outcome than the pre-match probabilities anticipated, largely due to Santana’s second-half impact.
