Norway v England

Norway meet England in the FIFA World Cup 2026 quarterfinal at Hard Rock Stadium, Miami. The model makes England the most likely outcome at 41%, with the full read 30% NOR, 29% draw, 41% ENG.

England rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 2040 to 1880. Recent form separates little, 70% against 72%. Attacking output favors England on expected goals, 1.9 to 1.7 per match.

Model score projection: most likely Norway 1-2 England, from expected goals of 1.1 to 1.9.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 58%, over 2.5 goals around 58%. Draw no bet leans England at 58%; double chance reads Norway or draw 59%, England or draw 70%.

The market prices NOR at 24% implied. Our number sits apart on Norway: a 5.9-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.