USM Alger v Olympique Medea: the model read
USM Alger meet Olympique Medea in the Coupe de la Ligue quarter-finals at Stade Omar Hamadi, Algiers. The model makes USM Alger the most likely outcome at 46%, with the full read 46% USM, 29% draw, 24% OLY.
The baseline ratings are close, 1500 to 1400, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans USM Alger, 50% against 18%. Attacking output favors USM Alger on expected goals, 1.2 to 1.0 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 43%, over 2.5 goals around 51%. Draw no bet leans USM Alger at 66%; double chance reads USM Alger or draw 76%, Olympique Medea or draw 54%.
USM Alger arrive patchy: 0W-3D-2L from their last five (3/15 pts, 3 unbeaten), 6 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: D 2-2 @ MC Oran, D 2-2 @ Ben Aknoun, D 1-1 v CR Belouizdad, L 0-1 @ MB Rouisset.
Olympique Medea are out of sorts: 0W-0D-5L from their last five (0/15 pts, 5 straight defeats), 6 scored and 16 conceded. Recent results: L 2-4 @ Oued Sly, L 1-2 v Témouchent, L 1-3 @ Ghir Abadla, L 1-3 v WA Mostaganem.
USM Alger hold the recent head-to-head, 6 wins to 2 with 2 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2022: USM Alger 4-0 Olympique Medea.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 54 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
