Uruguay v Uzbekistan

Uruguay meet Uzbekistan in the China Cup semi-finals at Guangxi Sports Center Stadium, Nanning. The model makes Uzbekistan the most likely outcome at 36%, with the full read 31% URU, 33% draw, 36% UZB.

The baseline ratings are close, 1477 to 1535, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 50% against 55%. Attacking output favors Uzbekistan on expected goals, 1.5 to 0.8 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 36%, over 2.5 goals around 28%. Draw no bet leans Uzbekistan at 53%; double chance reads Uruguay or draw 64%, Uzbekistan or draw 69%.

Uruguay arrive patchy: 0W-4D-1L from their last five (4/15 pts), 4 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 v Spain, D 2-2 v Cape Verde Islands, D 1-1 @ Saudi Arabia, D 0-0 @ Algeria.

Uzbekistan are out of sorts: 0W-0D-5L from their last five (0/15 pts, 5 straight defeats), 3 scored and 15 conceded. Recent results: L 1-3 @ Congo DR, L 0-5 @ Portugal, L 1-3 v Colombia, L 1-2 @ Netherlands.

Uruguay hold the recent head-to-head, 3 wins to 0 across the last 3 meetings. Most recently they met in 2025: Uzbekistan 1-2 Uruguay.

Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.