Where the market is wrong on Timor-Leste v Cambodia
Timor-Leste meet Cambodia in the FIFA Asean Cup division 2 - 3 at Kai Tak Sports Park, Hongkong.
The baseline ratings are close, 1400 to 1454, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Cambodia, 43% against 20%. Attacking output favors Cambodia on expected goals, 1.5 to 0.8 per match.
Timor-Leste arrive out of sorts: 0W-1D-4L from their last five (1/15 pts), 2 scored and 12 conceded. Recent results: D 2-2 v Cambodia, L 0-2 @ Myanmar, L 0-3 @ Cambodia, L 0-3 v Indonesia.
Cambodia are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 8 scored and 10 conceded. Recent results: D 2-2 @ Timor-Leste, W 1-0 v Myanmar, L 1-3 @ Vietnam, W 3-0 v Timor-Leste.
Cambodia hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 0 with 2 drawn across the last 7 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Timor-Leste 2-2 Cambodia.
The market prices TIM at 10% implied. Our number sits apart on Timor-Leste: a 12.0-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 55 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
