Where the market is wrong on Bury v Bromsgrove Sporting
Bury meet Bromsgrove Sporting in the FA Cup 3rd round qualifying.
The baseline ratings are close, 1673 to 1753, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Bromsgrove Sporting, 83% against 73%. Attacking output favors Bury on expected goals, 2.6 to 2.2 per match.
Bury arrive in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts, 4 unbeaten), 21 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: D 3-3 v Gainsborough Trinity, W 5-1 v Workington, W 4-0 v AFC Emley, W 8-0 v Wythenshawe Amateurs.
Bromsgrove Sporting are surging: 4W-1D-0L from their last five (13/15 pts, 5 unbeaten), 8 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 v Leamington, W 1-0 @ Racing Club Warwick, W 3-2 @ Stratford Town, W 2-1 v Leek Town.
The market prices BUR at 52% implied. Our number sits apart on Bromsgrove Sporting: a 10.4-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
