Where the market is wrong on ATK Mohun Bagan v Sreenidi Deccan
ATK Mohun Bagan meet Sreenidi Deccan in the IFA Shield group stage at Vivekananda Yuba Bharati Krirangan, Kolkata.
ATK Mohun Bagan rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1650 to 1500. Recent form leans ATK Mohun Bagan, 74% against 50%. Attacking output favors ATK Mohun Bagan on expected goals, 1.8 to 1.0 per match.
ATK Mohun Bagan arrive in good touch: 2W-3D-0L from their last five (9/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 10 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: W 6-0 v Sreenidi Deccan, W 2-1 v SC Delhi, D 1-1 v East Bengal II, D 0-0 v Inter Kashi.
Sreenidi Deccan are patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 4 scored and 12 conceded. Recent results: L 0-3 v NorthEast United, L 0-6 @ ATK Mohun Bagan, D 1-1 @ Dempo, W 2-1 v Chanmari.
The market prices ATK at 80% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 15.1-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 56 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
