Where the market is wrong on Guatemala v El Salvador
Guatemala meet El Salvador in the CONCACAF Nations League league a - 2.
The baseline ratings are close, 1420 to 1431, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 37% against 40%. Attacking output favors Guatemala on expected goals, 1.2 to 0.9 per match.
Guatemala arrive out of sorts: 0W-0D-5L from their last five (0/15 pts, 5 straight defeats), 3 scored and 17 conceded. Recent results: L 2-3 @ Jamaica, L 0-3 @ Ecuador, L 1-3 @ Czechia, L 0-7 @ Algeria.
El Salvador are steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 8 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: W 3-1 v Martinique, D 2-2 @ Club Tijuana, L 0-3 @ Los Angeles FC, W 3-0 @ Los Angeles Galaxy.
The recent head-to-head is even, 4 apiece with 2 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2025: El Salvador 0-1 Guatemala.
The market prices GUA at 46% implied. Our number sits apart on El Salvador: a 8.9-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 73 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
