Where the market is wrong on AFC Emley v Spennymoor Town
AFC Emley meet Spennymoor Town in the FA Cup 2nd round qualifying.
The baseline ratings are close, 1431 to 1454, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 43% against 43%. Attacking output favors Spennymoor Town on expected goals, 1.3 to 1.1 per match.
AFC Emley arrive patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 3 scored and 13 conceded. Recent results: L 0-4 v Spennymoor Town, L 0-4 @ Bury, W 2-0 @ Bishop Auckland, D 1-1 v Bishop Auckland.
Spennymoor Town are patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 8 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: W 4-0 @ AFC Emley, D 1-1 v Macclesfield, L 1-3 v Spalding United, L 1-2 @ Hereford.
Spennymoor Town hold the recent head-to-head, 1 wins to 0 across the last 1 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: AFC Emley 0-4 Spennymoor Town.
The market prices AFC at 29% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 5.3-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
