Where the market is wrong on Ibri v Al-Nahda
Ibri meet Al-Nahda in the FA Cup group stage - 4.
Al-Nahda rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1558 to 1408. Recent form leans Al-Nahda, 60% against 35%. Attacking output favors Ibri on expected goals, 1.1 to 1.1 per match.
Ibri arrive patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 7 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: D 2-2 @ Al Musannah, D 0-0 v Al-Nahda, L 0-3 @ Al Seeb, L 1-2 v Saham.
Al-Nahda are steady: 1W-4D-0L from their last five (7/15 pts, 5 unbeaten), 6 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: D 0-0 @ Ibri, D 1-1 v Saham, D 1-1 v Al Taawon, D 1-1 v Al Seeb.
Al-Nahda hold the recent head-to-head, 6 wins to 0 with 3 drawn across the last 9 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Ibri 0-0 Al-Nahda.
The market prices IBR at 18% implied. Our number sits apart on Ibri: a 9.4-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
