Where the market is wrong on Progreso v CA River Plate
Progreso meet CA River Plate in the Copa Uruguay round of 32 at Parque Abraham Paladino, Montevideo.
CA River Plate rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1546 to 1400. Recent form leans CA River Plate, 55% against 20%. Attacking output favors CA River Plate on expected goals, 1.4 to 0.7 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 35%, over 2.5 goals around 40%. Draw no bet leans CA River Plate at 65%; double chance reads Progreso or draw 55%, CA River Plate or draw 76%.
Progreso arrive out of sorts: 0W-0D-5L from their last five (0/15 pts, 5 straight defeats), 1 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: L 0-2 v CA River Plate, L 0-1 @ Club Nacional, L 0-2 v Deportivo Maldonado, L 0-1 @ Central Espanol.
CA River Plate are in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts), 7 scored and 1 conceded. Recent results: W 2-0 @ Progreso, D 0-0 @ Paysandu, W 3-0 v Miramar, W 2-0 v Sportivo Huracan.
The recent head-to-head is even, 4 apiece with 2 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Progreso 0-2 CA River Plate.
The market prices PRO at 37% implied. Our number sits apart on CA River Plate: a 12.7-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 83 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
