Where the market is wrong on Tokushima Vortis v FC Tokushima
Tokushima Vortis meet FC Tokushima in the Emperor Cup 2nd round at Pocarisweat Stadium, Naruto.
Tokushima Vortis rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1546 to 1400. Recent form leans Tokushima Vortis, 55% against 23%. Attacking output favors Tokushima Vortis on expected goals, 1.6 to 1.1 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 55%, over 2.5 goals around 77%. Draw no bet leans Tokushima Vortis at 72%; double chance reads Tokushima Vortis or draw 79%, FC Tokushima or draw 47%.
Tokushima Vortis arrive steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 6 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: W 3-0 v FC Tokushima, L 1-2 @ Jubilo Iwata, D 0-0 v Sagan Tosu, L 0-2 @ Consadole Sapporo.
FC Tokushima are patchy: 1W-0D-4L from their last five (3/15 pts), 2 scored and 11 conceded. Recent results: L 0-3 @ Tokushima Vortis, W 1-0 v Kawasoe Club, L 1-2 @ Fukuyama City, L 0-1 v J-Lease FC.
The market prices TOK at 81% implied. Our number sits apart on FC Tokushima: a 15.0-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 56 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output