Where the market is wrong on Parma v Cremonese
Parma meet Cremonese in the Coppa Italia round of 32 at Stadio Ennio Tardini, Parma.
The baseline ratings are close, 1420 to 1420, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 40% against 36%. Attacking output favors Cremonese on expected goals, 1.0 to 0.7 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 29%, over 2.5 goals around 20%. Draw no bet leans Cremonese at 52%; double chance reads Parma or draw 66%, Cremonese or draw 68%.
Parma arrive patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 3 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: L 0-2 @ Juventus, L 0-1 v Cagliari, W 2-0 v Catania, L 0-2 v Sampdoria.
Cremonese are patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 3 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: L 0-3 v Modena, L 0-1 @ Empoli, W 2-0 v Sampdoria, D 0-0 v Lumezzane.
Cremonese hold the recent head-to-head, 4 wins to 2 with 2 drawn across the last 8 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Parma 0-2 Cremonese.
The market prices PAR at 44% implied. Our number sits apart on Cremonese: a 6.6-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 64 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
