Where the market is wrong on Torino v Monza
Torino meet Monza in the Coppa Italia round of 32 at Stadio Olimpico di Torino, Turin.
The baseline ratings are close, 1512 to 1569, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Monza, 60% against 50%. Attacking output favors Monza on expected goals, 1.9 to 1.3 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 60%, over 2.5 goals around 59%. Draw no bet leans Monza at 55%; double chance reads Torino or draw 61%, Monza or draw 69%.
Torino arrive steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 5 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 @ Sassuolo, L 1-2 v AC Milan, W 1-0 v Carrarese, D 1-1 @ Avellino.
Monza are patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 10 scored and 13 conceded. Recent results: L 2-3 v Udinese, L 1-4 @ Inter, W 3-0 v Avellino, D 3-3 v Padova.
Torino hold the recent head-to-head, 4 wins to 0 with 3 drawn across the last 7 meetings. Most recently they met in 2025: Monza 0-2 Torino.
The market prices TOR at 52% implied. Our number sits apart on Monza: a 18.2-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 82 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
