Where the market is wrong on Smail v Saham
Smail meet Saham in the Professional League regular season - 1.
The baseline ratings are close, 1400 to 1400, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 33% against 25%. Attacking output favors Smail on expected goals, 0.8 to 0.6 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 30%, over 2.5 goals around 23%. Draw no bet leans Smail at 56%; double chance reads Smail or draw 71%, Saham or draw 63%.
Smail arrive patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 4 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: L 0-2 v Oman Club, L 0-1 v Bahla, D 1-1 @ Al Nasr, W 2-1 v Sohar.
Saham are patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts, 3 straight defeats), 4 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 v Al Seeb, L 1-2 @ Sohar, L 0-2 v Al Nasr, D 2-2 @ Sohar.
The recent head-to-head is even, 1 apiece with 2 drawn across the last 4 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Saham 0-4 Smail.
The market prices SMA at 28% implied. Our number sits apart on Smail: a 8.8-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 73 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output