Monterrey v Chicago Fire: the model read
Monterrey meet Chicago Fire in the Leagues Cup quarter-finals at SeatGeek Stadium, Bridgeview.
The baseline ratings are close, 1512 to 1627, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Chicago Fire, 65% against 50%. Attacking output favors Chicago Fire on expected goals, 2.0 to 1.8 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 76%, over 2.5 goals around 80%. Draw no bet leans Chicago Fire at 57%; double chance reads Monterrey or draw 59%, Chicago Fire or draw 69%.
Monterrey arrive in good touch: 4W-0D-1L from their last five (12/15 pts), 12 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 v Chicago Fire, L 0-2 @ Leon, W 6-1 v FC Juarez, W 2-1 v Nashville SC.
Chicago Fire are in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts), 8 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 @ Monterrey, D 1-1 @ New York Red Bulls, W 2-1 @ Orlando City SC, W 2-1 v Portland Timbers.
Monterrey hold the recent head-to-head, 1 wins to 0 across the last 1 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Monterrey 2-1 Chicago Fire.
The market prices MON at 35% implied. Our number sits apart on Chicago Fire: a 1.8-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 57 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
