Where the market is wrong on Virtus Francavilla v Brindisi
Virtus Francavilla meet Brindisi in the Serie D - Girone H group h - 3 at Stadio Giovanni Paolo II, Francavilla Fontana.
The baseline ratings are close, 1592 to 1512, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Virtus Francavilla, 63% against 53%. Attacking output favors Brindisi on expected goals, 1.6 to 1.4 per match.
Virtus Francavilla arrive in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts, 3 straight wins), 9 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 v Brindisi, W 1-0 @ Melfi, W 3-1 v USD Palmese, D 2-2 v Sarnese.
Brindisi are patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 5 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 @ Virtus Francavilla, W 1-0 v Fidelis Andria, L 1-4 @ Real Forio 2014, D 0-0 v Francavilla.
The market prices VIR at 46% implied. Our number sits apart on Brindisi: a 5.7-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
