Where the market is wrong on Montevarchi Calcio v Progresso
Montevarchi Calcio meet Progresso in the Serie D - Girone E group e - 5.
Montevarchi Calcio rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1546 to 1400. Recent form leans Montevarchi Calcio, 60% against 33%. Attacking output favors Montevarchi Calcio on expected goals, 0.9 to 0.9 per match.
Montevarchi Calcio arrive steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 8 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: W 2-0 v Progresso, L 0-3 @ Robur Siena, D 1-1 @ Seravezza, W 4-1 v Tau Altopascio.
Progresso are patchy: 1W-0D-4L from their last five (3/15 pts, 3 straight defeats), 3 scored and 13 conceded. Recent results: L 0-2 @ Montevarchi Calcio, L 0-3 v Seravezza, L 0-5 @ Lucchese, W 2-1 v Scandicci.
Montevarchi Calcio hold the recent head-to-head, 1 wins to 0 across the last 1 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Montevarchi Calcio 2-0 Progresso.
The market prices MON at 48% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 7.0-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
