Where the market is wrong on Heart Of Midlothian v Rapid Vienna
Heart Of Midlothian meet Rapid Vienna in the UEFA Europa Conference League playoff round at Tynecastle Park, Edinburgh.
The baseline ratings are close, 1581 to 1673, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Rapid Vienna, 73% against 60%. Attacking output favors Rapid Vienna on expected goals, 2.5 to 1.8 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 76%, over 2.5 goals around 86%. Draw no bet leans Rapid Vienna at 64%; double chance reads Heart Of Midlothian or draw 53%, Rapid Vienna or draw 74%.
Heart Of Midlothian arrive steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts, 4 unbeaten), 14 scored and 11 conceded. Recent results: D 2-2 v Rapid Vienna, W 6-2 v Inverness CT, D 1-1 v Benfica, W 4-0 v Dundee Utd.
Rapid Vienna are surging: 4W-1D-0L from their last five (13/15 pts, 5 unbeaten), 18 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: D 2-2 @ Heart Of Midlothian, W 8-0 v Grazer AK, W 2-0 v Paide, W 2-1 @ Ried.
Their last 1 meetings are tight — 1 drawn. Most recently they met in 2026: Heart Of Midlothian 2-2 Rapid Vienna.
The market prices HEA at 39% implied. Our number sits apart on Rapid Vienna: a 12.8-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 84 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
