Where the market is wrong on Stoke City v Hull City
Stoke City meet Hull City in the League Cup round of 64 at Bet365 Stadium, Stoke on Trent.
Hull City rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1541 to 1400. Recent form leans Hull City, 58% against 33%. Attacking output favors Hull City on expected goals, 1.2 to 1.1 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 39%, over 2.5 goals around 39%. Draw no bet leans Hull City at 62%; double chance reads Stoke City or draw 57%, Hull City or draw 74%.
Stoke City arrive patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 6 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 v Hull City, L 1-3 @ Southampton, L 1-2 v Swansea, W 2-0 v Oldham.
Hull City are steady: 1W-3D-1L from their last five (6/15 pts, 3 unbeaten), 4 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 @ Stoke City, W 2-0 v Manchester United, D 0-0 v Nice, L 0-2 @ Eintracht Frankfurt.
Stoke City hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 3 with 2 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Stoke City 1-1 Hull City.
The market prices STO at 39% implied. Our number sits apart on Hull City: a 10.4-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 79 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
