Where the market is wrong on Guabirá v Blooming
Guabirá meet Blooming in the Primera División apertura - 16 at Estadio Gilberto Parada, Montero.
The baseline ratings are close, 1523 to 1408, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Guabirá, 53% against 38%. Attacking output favors Guabirá on expected goals, 1.6 to 0.8 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 58%, over 2.5 goals around 62%. Draw no bet leans Guabirá at 60%; double chance reads Guabirá or draw 72%, Blooming or draw 57%.
Guabirá arrive in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts), 8 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: L 1-3 @ Independiente Petrolero, D 1-1 v Blooming, W 2-1 v Universitario de Vinto, W 3-1 v The Strongest.
Blooming are patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 7 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 v Real Oruro, D 1-1 @ Guabirá, L 2-5 @ Independiente Petrolero, W 3-0 v Aurora.
Guabirá hold the recent head-to-head, 4 wins to 3 with 3 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Guabirá 1-1 Blooming.
The market prices GUA at 44% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 3.9-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
