Where the market is wrong on Txantrea v Bidezarra
Txantrea meet Bidezarra in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 group 15 - 4.
The baseline ratings are close, 1431 to 1500, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Bidezarra, 50% against 40%. Attacking output favors Txantrea on expected goals, 1.3 to 0.9 per match.
Txantrea arrive steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts, 3 unbeaten), 7 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: D 2-2 v Bidezarra, W 1-0 @ San Juan, D 1-1 v Cirbonero, L 0-4 @ Avance Ezcabarte.
Bidezarra are patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 5 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: D 2-2 @ Txantrea, L 0-4 v Izarra, L 0-2 @ Cortes, D 0-0 v Beti Kozkor.
Txantrea hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 3 with 1 drawn across the last 9 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Txantrea 2-2 Bidezarra.
The market prices TXA at 50% implied. Our number sits apart on Bidezarra: a 14.9-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 81 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
