Where the market is wrong on Lumezzane v Folgore Caratese
Lumezzane meet Folgore Caratese in the Serie C - Girone A girone a - 7 at Tullio Saleri, Lumezzane.
The baseline ratings are close, 1500 to 1500, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 53% against 53%. Attacking output favors Folgore Caratese on expected goals, 1.4 to 1.1 per match.
Lumezzane arrive patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 6 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 v Folgore Caratese, W 2-1 @ Dolomiti Bellunesi, D 0-0 v Novara, D 2-2 v Renate.
Folgore Caratese are patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 5 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 @ Lumezzane, D 1-1 v Giana Erminio, D 0-0 @ Pergolettese, L 2-3 v Alcione.
Lumezzane hold the recent head-to-head, 2 wins to 1 across the last 3 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Lumezzane 1-2 Folgore Caratese.
The market prices LUM at 42% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 4.6-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 61 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
