Where the market is wrong on Os Marialvas v Oliveira Hospital
Os Marialvas meet Oliveira Hospital in the Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C group c - 2.
The baseline ratings are close, 1500 to 1581, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Oliveira Hospital, 63% against 50%. Attacking output favors Oliveira Hospital on expected goals, 1.6 to 1.1 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 28%, over 2.5 goals around 23%. Draw no bet leans Oliveira Hospital at 59%; double chance reads Os Marialvas or draw 61%, Oliveira Hospital or draw 73%.
Os Marialvas arrive patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 2 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 v Oliveira Hospital, W 1-0 @ Atlético Malveira, D 0-0 @ União Lamas, L 0-1 @ Lajense.
Oliveira Hospital are patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 6 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 @ Os Marialvas, L 2-3 v Benfica Castelo Branco, D 1-1 v Atlético Malveira, L 1-2 @ Louletano.
Oliveira Hospital hold the recent head-to-head, 2 wins to 0 with 1 drawn across the last 3 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Os Marialvas 1-2 Oliveira Hospital.
The market prices OS at 34% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 3.6-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 60 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
