Where the market is wrong on Las Palmas v União de Leiria
Las Palmas meet União de Leiria in the Friendlies Clubs club friendlies. The model makes União de Leiria the most likely outcome at 36%, with the full read 35% LAS, 30% draw, 36% UNI.
The baseline ratings are close, 1569 to 1541, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 57% against 55%. Attacking output favors União de Leiria on expected goals, 1.7 to 1.4 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 62%, over 2.5 goals around 59%. Draw no bet leans União de Leiria at 51%; double chance reads Las Palmas or draw 64%, União de Leiria or draw 65%.
Las Palmas arrive patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 4 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 v Al-Ittihad FC, L 0-1 @ Orlando Pirates, D 1-1 @ Malaga, L 0-1 v Malaga.
União de Leiria are patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts), 4 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: W 2-0 v AD Marco 09, L 0-1 v Alverca, D 2-2 v Feirense, L 0-1 @ Vizela.
The market prices LAS at 53% implied. Our number sits apart on União de Leiria: a 12.7-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 81 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
