Where the market is wrong on Neftchi Baku v Araz
Neftchi Baku meet Araz in the Premyer Liqa regular season - 2 at Palms Sports Arena, Baku.
Neftchi Baku rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1650 to 1466. Recent form leans Neftchi Baku, 68% against 43%. Attacking output favors Neftchi Baku on expected goals, 2.1 to 1.1 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 51%, over 2.5 goals around 77%. Draw no bet leans Neftchi Baku at 73%; double chance reads Neftchi Baku or draw 80%, Araz or draw 45%.
Neftchi Baku arrive in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts, 3 straight wins), 11 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: W 5-0 v Araz, W 3-1 @ Sumqayıt, W 1-0 @ Dinamo Minsk, L 2-4 v Dinamo Minsk.
Araz are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 6 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: L 0-5 @ Neftchi Baku, D 0-0 v Imisli FK, W 3-2 v Zira, W 2-0 v Kapaz.
Neftchi Baku hold the recent head-to-head, 4 wins to 3 with 3 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Neftchi Baku 5-0 Araz.
The market prices NEF at 61% implied. Our number sits apart on Araz: a 3.6-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 56 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
