Where the market is wrong on Tusker v Rayon Sports
Tusker meet Rayon Sports in the CECAFA Club Cup group stage - 2. The model makes Rayon Sports the most likely outcome at 38%, with the full read 25% TUS, 37% draw, 38% RAY.
The baseline ratings are close, 1500 to 1592, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Rayon Sports, 68% against 48%. Attacking output favors Rayon Sports on expected goals, 1.2 to 0.8 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 15%, over 2.5 goals around 11%. Draw no bet leans Rayon Sports at 61%; double chance reads Tusker or draw 62%, Rayon Sports or draw 75%.
Tusker arrive patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts), 3 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: L 0-2 @ Al Hilal Omdurman, W 2-1 v Police, D 1-1 v APS Bomet, L 0-2 @ Ulinzi Stars.
Rayon Sports are in good touch: 3W-2D-0L from their last five (11/15 pts), 8 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: W 2-0 v KVZ, D 1-1 v Kiyovu Sports, W 2-0 v Bugesera, D 1-1 v Gorilla.
The market prices TUS at 17% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 10.1-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
