Where the market is wrong on Águila v Fuerte San Francisco
Águila meet Fuerte San Francisco in the Primera Division apertura - 7.
The baseline ratings are close, 1523 to 1408, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Águila, 53% against 38%. Attacking output favors Águila on expected goals, 1.4 to 0.8 per match.
Águila arrive patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts), 9 scored and 10 conceded. Recent results: W 4-1 v Fuerte San Francisco, L 0-1 @ FAS, L 2-4 v Atletico Balboa, L 1-2 @ Isidro Metapán.
Fuerte San Francisco are patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 4 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: L 1-4 @ Águila, L 0-1 @ Atletico Balboa, W 1-0 v Isidro Metapán, D 0-0 @ Cacahuatique.
Águila hold the recent head-to-head, 6 wins to 0 with 4 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Águila 4-1 Fuerte San Francisco.
The market prices ÁGU at 56% implied. Our number sits apart on Fuerte San Francisco: a 8.6-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
